Application of ARIMA prediction model in forecasting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province
LIU Xi-bo1, CAO Jing1, WANG Yun1, LI Ming-yang1, WANG Shu-xia1, HU Ji-hong2
1. School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China; 2. Scientific Research and Experiment Center, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
Abstract:Objective To establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) prediction model in predicting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province, and to evaluate its prediction effect. Methods Data regarding the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2018 were used to establish an ARIMA prediction model. At the same time, data about the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in 2019 were applied to evaluating the model, and the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province in 2020 was forecasted. Results The ARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,0)12 model was supposed to be the best fitted model. The value of R2 was 0.741, the value of Ljung-Box Q statistic was 25.944, and BIC value was 11.060. The model fitted the incidence trend of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province, which was consistent with the actual incidence trend, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 17.297%. The predicted results revealed that the time distribution of incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province in 2020 tended to be similar to that of previous years. Conclusions The data predicted by the ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)12 model can fit well with the incidence trend of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province, and the model has certain public health significance in prevention, control and risk assessment of other infectious diarrhea.
刘希波, 曹静, 王云, 李明阳, 王淑霞, 胡继宏. ARIMA预测模型在甘肃省其他感染性腹泻发病预测中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(1): 113-115.
LIU Xi-bo, CAO Jing, WANG Yun, LI Ming-yang, WANG Shu-xia, HU Ji-hong. Application of ARIMA prediction model in forecasting the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Gansu Province. , 2021, 28(1): 113-115.