Prediction of cancer death in Henan province, 2009-2015 based on multivariate GM (1, N) grey model
MA Qian-qian1,2, YANG Tu-bao3, CUI Fang-fang1,2, SHI Jin-ming1,2, SUN Dong-xun1,2, ZHAI Yun-kai1,2,4
1. The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450052, China; 2. National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhenghou, Henan 450052, China; 3. Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410078, China; 4. School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhenghou, Henan 450001, China
Abstract：Objective To explore the association between environmental factors and tumor death in Henan province so as to establish a grey prediction model for cancer mortality. Methods Based on the data about the cancer mortality of Henan residents in 2009-2015 and environmental pollution in 2000-2015, grey relational analysis was used to explore the correlation between environmental factors and cancer death, and the incubation period of tumor death caused by environmental pollution was quantitatively analyzed. The grey prediction models were established, and then compared with the traditional Poisson regression model. The optimal model was chosen to predict the cancer mortality. Results The descending order of correlation between environmental pollution indicators and tumor mortality was smoke (dust) > wastewater emission > sulfur dioxide > chemical oxygen demand > industrial solid waste > ammonia-nitrogenous wastewater, with 8 years, 0 year, 5 years, 6 years, 9 years and 4 years incubation period for tumor deaths, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the Poisson regression model, the GM (1,4) model and the time-delay GM (1,4) model were 15.11%, 4.94%, and 4.29%, respectively. The cancer mortality rates in Henan province in 2016 and 2017 predicted by the time-delay GM (1,4) model were 157.97/100,000 and 154.61/100,000 respectively. Conclusions Environmental pollution indicators such as smoke (dust) are closely related to cancer death with hysteresis effects. Cancer death can be predicted according to environmental pollution indicators; meanwhile, long-term prevention and treatment strategies for cancer can be formulated.
马倩倩, 杨土保, 崔芳芳, 石金铭, 孙东旭, 翟运开. 基于多变量GM(1,N)灰色模型的2009—2015年河南省恶性肿瘤死亡预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(10): 1153-1157.
MA Qian-qian, YANG Tu-bao, CUI Fang-fang, SHI Jin-ming, SUN Dong-xun, ZHAI Yun-kai. Prediction of cancer death in Henan province, 2009-2015 based on multivariate GM (1, N) grey model. , 2020, 27(10): 1153-1157.
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2020, Vol. 27 
