Time series analysis on the effect between atmospheric PM2.5 pollution and deaths from cardiovascular diseases among residents in Yangquan City, 2019-2020
ZHANG Wenjun1,2, LEI Lijian1
1. School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030001, China; 2. Yangquan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yangquan, Shanxi 045000, China
Abstract:Objective To explore the quantitative relationship between atmospheric PM2.5 and deaths due to cardiovascular diseases among residents in Yangquan City. Methods We collected the data regarding daily air pollutants, meteorological indicators and the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020, and explored the relationship between atmospheric PM2.5 and the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases among residents by using time series analysis. Results A total of 8,386 residents died of cardiovascular diseases in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020, with a median of 11 deaths per day. During the same period, the median daily concentration of PM2.5 was 38.00 μg/m3. The number of deaths from cardiovascular diseases per day in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020 was positively correlated with theconcentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and CO, but negatively correlated with O3-8h concentration, average daily temperature and relative humidity. In the single pollutant model, for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, the risks of death from cardiovascular diseases in the total residents, residents aged ≥ 65 years or < 65 years and females increased by 2.27% (95%CI:0.73%-3.20%), 2.36% (95%CI:1.15%-3.58%), 2.23% (95%CI:0.10%-4.41%) and 3.39% (95%CI:1.19%-4.89%) respectively. The single-day lag effect showed that the association between PM2.5 and the number of cardiovascular deaths in each characteristic population was statistically significant only on the day of exposure, and the effect was the largest in females, with an excess risk (ER) value of 2.57% (95%CI:0.85%-4.30%). The cumulative lag effect displayed that the cumulative lag of PM2.5 on the deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the total residents, residents aged ≥ 65 years or < 65 years and females reached the maximum on the 5th, 5th, 3rd and 7th days respectively, and the risk of cardiovascular death in females was the highest when the cumulative lag reached 4th day, with an ER value of 3.54% (95%CI:1.60%-5.50%). In the multi-pollutant model, the effect values of the relationship between PM2.5 and the deaths from cardiovascular disease among residents decreased when introducing SO2, O3-8h, NO2, SO2+NO2, SO2+O3-8h and SO2+NO2+O3-8h. Conclusion The increase of PM2.5 concentration in Yangquan City may raise the number of deaths from cardiovascular diseases, and may have a greater impact on females. Moreover, there is a lag effect.
张文军, 雷立健. 2019—2020年阳泉市大气PM2.5污染与居民心血管疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(8): 908-912.
ZHANG Wenjun, LEI Lijian. Time series analysis on the effect between atmospheric PM2.5 pollution and deaths from cardiovascular diseases among residents in Yangquan City, 2019-2020. , 2023, 30(8): 908-912.