Analysis of factors influencing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on quasi-Poisson regression
YANG Peng1, YANG Kun2, WANG Xiao-li2, HE Jun2
1. Faculty of Preventive Medicine, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an,Shannxi 710032, China; 2. Xi’an Gaoxin Hospital Affiliated to Northwestern University, Xi’an, Shannxi 710065, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze and compare the indexes related to cases due to infection with two types of SARS-CoV-2 variants, to identify the main factors influencing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to provide references and a basis for prevention and control of the epidemic. Methods We collected and summarized the data regarding the number of daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the number of vaccinations per day, daily government control index, and human development index (HDI) in 156 Asian, European, and African countries from January 22, 2020 to March 27, 2022. SARS-CoV-2 variants were divided into two types according to the onset time and characteristics of the cases, the first type mainly included Alpha, Beta and Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2, and the second one mainly included the Omicron variant. The general linear model with quasi-Poisson regression was used to analyze the relationship between the incidence of infection with two types of SARS-CoV-2 variants and its influencing factors, and the differences in the influencing factors were compared through the relative risk (RR) values. Results Among the 149 countries screened, the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection had a high correlation with HDI (r=0.54) and the median age (r=0.47), but a low correlation with the average government control index (r=0.18). The general trends of influencing factors were almost the same between the first and second types of variants. The analysis revealed that vaccination was an effective protective factor for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the RR values of two types of cases were 0.20 and 0.25 respectively. The proportion of population over 65 years old was a weak risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the RR values were 1.03 and 1.05 respectively. The RR values for the government control index weregenerally around 1.00. There was no statistical difference in the effect of population density on the incidence. However, the analysis revealed that HDI was a risk factor for the incidence, with the RR values being 2.40 and 5.22 for both types of cases. Conclusion Vaccination is an effective protection approach to control the cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The proportion of the population over 65 years old is a weak risk factor for the incidence, and HDI is a risk factor for the incidence. For the prevention and control of subsequent epidemic mainly involving Omicron cases, the first measure is to continuously increase the coverage rate of vaccination in countries and regions with low vaccination coverage.
杨鹏, 杨昆, 王小莉, 贺军. 基于类泊松回归的新冠感染病例发病影响因素分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(6): 673-676.
YANG Peng, YANG Kun, WANG Xiao-li, HE Jun. Analysis of factors influencing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on quasi-Poisson regression. , 2023, 30(6): 673-676.
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