Abstract：Objective To investigate the mortality of female breast cancer in Wuxi City from 2009 to 2014 and to forecast its death tendency so as to provide references for developing regional strategies for its prevention and control. Methods The data of death cause surveillance in Wuxi City during 2009-2014 were used to calculate the crude and standardized mortality rates of female breast cancer. GM (1,1) forcasting model was used to fit and forecast the mortality rate. Results The mortality rate of female breast cancer in Wuxi City showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2014 (χ2tendency=4.19, P=0.04), moreover, it ascended with the increasing age (χ2tendency=792.52, P<0.0001). The average mortality rate was 8.99/100,000 , with China standardized mortality rate of 5.16/100,000 and world standardized mortality rate of 4.86/100,000. Fitting by GM (1,1) model got a = -0.037548 and μ=7.966789, as well as the forcasting model of(t)=220.538532e0.037548(t-1)-212.178532(C=0.30, P=1) with a good forecast accuracy. The mortality rate of female breast cancer in Wuxi City was predicted to be 10.18/100,000 in 2015 and 12.28/100,000 in 2020. Conclusions GM(1,1) forecasting model can be used for predicting the death tendency of female breast cancer in Wuxi City. Breast cancer is still a malignant tumor threatening females’ health in Wuxi City for a considerable time.
董昀球， 杨坚波， 徐明， 钱云， 杨志杰， 董美华. 2009-2014年无锡市女性乳腺癌死亡状况和趋势分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2017, 24(1): 12-14.
DONG Yun-qiu, YANG Jian-bo, XU Ming, QIAN Yun, YANG Zhi-jie, DONG Mei-hua. Deaths of female breast cancer in Wuxi City and its trend, 2009-2014. , 2017, 24(1): 12-14.
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2017, Vol. 24 
