Application of SEIAR model to analyzing the epidemic situation of norovirus gastroenteritis in a children's center
PANG Fen1, YE You-bin2, LIU Jin2
1. Futian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518000, China; 2. School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350000, China
Abstract：Objective To investigate and analyze an infectious gastroenteritis outbreak caused by norovirus, and to provide a basis for prevention and control of norovirus outbreak in the school. Methods Cases and specimens were collected from a children's center in Shenzhen City. On-site epidemiological investigation and laboratory testing were conducted, and a susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model was set up. Results A total of 104 cases of infectious gastroenteritis caused by norovirus were involved in this outbreak, with an attack rate of 19.80% (104/525), including 90 cases of vomiting (86.54%), 64 cases of abdominal pain (61.54%) and 11 cases of diarrhea (10.58%). The epidemic curve showed a point source exposure pattern. The SEIAR model revealed that the infection rate and c were 7.590 and 0.143, respectively. The attack rate would reach 40.19% (211/525), and the entire epidemic process would last 20 days. Moreover, it was found that only when the environmental disinfection reached 10% β, the cumulative number of cases could be significantly reduced, but the duration of the epidemic was also extended. Conclusion Reducing norovirus through environmental disinfection cannot effectively suppress the development of the epidemic, but closing the school can effectively reduce the number of patients, and the effect is significant, which is superior to the joint prevention and control measures of isolation and environmental disinfection.
庞芬, 叶友斌, 刘瑾. 应用SEIAR模型分析某儿童中心诺如病毒肠胃炎疫情[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(8): 943-947.
PANG Fen, YE You-bin, LIU Jin. Application of SEIAR model to analyzing the epidemic situation of norovirus gastroenteritis in a children's center. , 2021, 28(8): 943-947.
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