Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors in Hengyang City during 2011-2014, to explore the establishment of HFMD early-warning model and to provide new evidence for HFMD prevention and control. Methods We collected the data about HFMD incidence and meteorological information in Hengyang City from 2011 to 2014, and descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological trends of HFMD. Spearman’s correlation analysis was employed to comprehensively scale the relationship between the meteorological factors and HFMD incidence. The judgment matrix was constructed with the AHP, and then the early-warning model was built. Results The incidence of HFMD in Hengyang City during 2011-2014 showed a double-peak form. The mean peak appeared from April to July (n=23,904, accounting for 56.21%), while the other one occurred in September and October (n=9,847, accounting for 23.16%). The incidence of HFMD was correlated with the temperature and sunshine duration (r=0.706,r=0.441). HFMD early-warming model constructed with the AHP showed that there was no red alert month in 2014, but yellow early warning months were found in April, May, June and August. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in Hengyang City is related to the meteorological factors, including temperature, humidity, rainfall and sunshine duration. HFMD early-warming model based on the meteorological factors can provide a good basis for HFMD prevention and control.
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2016, Vol. 23 
