Influence of air temperature on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jiayuguan City, 2008-2016
LIU Yi-bing1, WANG Yu-ming2, LI Shi-xiong2
1. The First People’s Hospital of Jiayuguan, Jiayuguan, Gansu 735100, China; 2. Jiayuguan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiayuguan, Gansu 735100, China
Abstract：Objective To explore and analyze the influence and lag effect of air temperature on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). Methods We collected the daily reported case number of HFMD in Jiayuguan City from 2008 to 2016 and local meteorological data during the same period. The relationship between air temperature and the daily case number of HFMD was fitted using a distributed lag nonlinear model, and the potential influences of different air temperatures and different lag days on the incidence of HFMD were analyzed. Results The incidence of HFMD was closely related to meteorological factors, and the peak incidence was generally from April to July each year. The exposure-response relationship between the daily average temperature and the daily average case number of HFMD in Jiayuguan City showed an irregular M shape. The maximum RR value at 19.0 ℃ was 3.66 (95%CI:2.75-4.87). The high temperature presented a harmful effect on lag day 1. When the air temperature was 28.0 ℃, the RR value reached a peak of 1.44 (95%CI:1.02-2.05) at lag day 1. The influence of air temperature on the incidence of HFMD was greater in males than in females, and decreased with the increasing age. Conclusion Air temperature can increase the risk of HFMD in Jiayuguan City, and its influence on the incidence of HFMD is nonlinear and lagging. Males and children aged 0-5 years are sensitive populations.
刘逸冰, 王玉明, 李世雄. 2008—2016年嘉峪关市气温对手足口病发病的影响[J]. 实用预防医学, 2022, 29(3): 272-275.
LIU Yi-bing, WANG Yu-ming, LI Shi-xiong. Influence of air temperature on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jiayuguan City, 2008-2016. , 2022, 29(3): 272-275.
2022, Vol. 29 
