Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemic features of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gusu district of Suzhou city from 2005 to 2019, and to forecast its incidence in 2020. Methods Circular distribution method was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhou city from 2005 to 2019. A time series model was employed to quantitatively predict the number of cases in 2020. Results The average annual reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2005 to 2019 was 27.64/100,000, and the average annual reported mortality rate was 0.08/100,000. The cumulative number of reported cases was higher in males than in females, with a male-to-female sex ratio of 2.15∶1. The age group of 20-59 years accounted for 71.1% of the total number of reported cases. The total proportion of housekeepers and the unemployed, workers, retirees and migrant workers accounted for 75.9% of the total number of reported cases. Circular distribution analysis showed that the peak incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was on July 2nd, and the epidemic period was from May 18th to August 16th. Time series analysis of data from 2008 to 2019 was performed, and the simple seasonal model was fitted automatically and revealed that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis tended to steadily decrease in Gusu district in 2020. Conclusions The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gusu district showed a downward trend. Males, the young and middle-aged, housekeepers and the unemployed, workers, retirees and migrant workers are the key groups to prevent and control pulmonary tuberculosis. The simple seasonal model has good fitting performance, and can provide references for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control.
2020, Vol. 27 
