Application of GM (1,1) model to forecasting the incidence rate of syphilis in China
WANG Ya-wen1, SHEN Zhong-zhou1, YANG Yin2
1. School of Public Health, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China;
2. Department of Medical Microbiology and Parasitology, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences CAMS, School of Basic Medicine PUMC, Beijing100005, China
Abstract:Objective To explore the performance of basic GM(1,1) model and metabolic GM(1,1) model in forecasting the incidence rate of syphilis in China so as to provide theoretical references for syphilis control. Methods The data about yearly incidence rates in China from 2008 to 2017 were collected, and R 3.4.3 software was used to develop models. The fitting and forecasting performance of the models was compared. Results The expression of two basic GM(1,1) models and metabolic GM(1,1) models wasx(1)(k+1)=511.37e(0.048k)-491.88,x(1)(k+1)=1 830.61e(0.016k) -1 803.75,x(1)(k+1)=753.35e(0.036k)-730.28, and x(1)(k+1)=922.35e(0.016k)-895.48,respectively. The relative errors of fitting of these four models were 4.38%, 0.79%, 2.55% and 1.96%, respectively. The relative error of forecastingwas 5.46%, 5.51%, 6.85% and 1.48%, respectively. The accuracy of the four models was high. Conclusions The performance of metabolic GM(1,1) model is better than that of basic GM(1,1) model, and the performance of GM(1,1) model built with actual data is superior to that of model built with forecasted data.
王雅文, 沈忠周, 杨银. GM(1,1)模型在我国梅毒发病率预测中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2019, 26(9): 1069-1071.
WANG Ya-wen, SHEN Zhong-zhou, YANG Yin. Application of GM (1,1) model to forecasting the incidence rate of syphilis in China. , 2019, 26(9): 1069-1071.
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