Abstract：Objective To establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time series analysis in predicting road traffic injuries (RTIs) based on the surveillance data in Zhuhai City, and to understand the changing rule of occurrence time of RTIs. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the occurrence time of RTIs collected from 3 sentinel monitoring hospitals in Zhuhai City from 2004 to 2016. An ARIMA model was established according to years and months of occurrence of RTIs during 2004-2015, and tested by the data about RTIs in 2016. And according to weeks and time points of occurrence of RTIs, another ARIMA model was simultaneously established to perform a time series analysis. Results We had totally monitored 70,813 cases of RTIs in 3 sentinel monitoring hospitals in Zhuhai City during 2004-2016. RTIs were fewer in January to February, but peaked in July. Most of the RTIs occurred on Monday, Saturday and Sunday. RTIs peaked at eighteen and twenty-one o’clock, and the second spike happened between seven and nine o’clock as well as between zero and two o’clock. According to months and years of occurrence of RTIs, the fitting model was ARIMA (0,1,1), and the Ljung-Box test for the model was not statistically significant (Q=16.586, P=0.413). The predictive analysis Results of RTIs in 2016 showed that the predictive values were similar to the actual observed values, and the scope of the confidence interval expanded as the prediction time extended. According to weeks and time points of occurrence of RTIs, the fitting model was ARIMA (1,0,0), and the Ljung-Box test for the model was not statistically significant (Q=13.283, P=0.652). The observed values were basically similar to the fitted values. Conclusions There were certain changing rules of time of RTIs in Zhuhai City during 2004-2016. ARIMA model is suitable for fitting the trend of occurrence time of RTIs and performing short-term forecast analysis.
尹锡玲, 代文灿, 李德云, 梁小冬, 朱克京, 龚思红, 马丹, 曾茹阳, 宁婷. 2004－2016年珠海市道路交通伤害时间序列分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2019, 26(5): 555-558.
YIN Xi-ling, DAI Wen-can, LI De-yun, LIANG Xiao-dong, ZHU Ke-jing, GONG Si-hong, MA Dan, ZENG Ru-yang, NING Ting. Time series analysis of road traffic injuries in Zhuhai City, 2004-2016. , 2019, 26(5): 555-558.
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2019, Vol. 26 
