Abstract：Objective To analyze the dynamic relationship between hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence and meteorological factors in Qingyuan City by using vector autoregression model (VAR) so as to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The VAR model was established with the meteorological data and HFMD incidence data from January 1, 2013 to April 30, 2017. The stability and fitting effect of the model were evaluated. The model was analyzed quantitatively by using impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, and the results were used to further predict the incidence of HFMD and evaluate the prediction effect. Results The total goodness-of-fit of the model was 0.96, and the adjusted goodness-of-fit was 0.95. The impact of HFMD incidence on the daily minimum temperature, daily minimum surface temperature and daily average relative humidity was positive. The mean absolute percentage errors in the prediction of HFMD in the next week and next 2, 3 and 4 weeks were 17.75%, 13.69%, 10.74% and 15.85% respectively, and Theil inequality coefficients were 0.08, 0.06, 0.05 and 0.09 respectively. Conclusions The VAR model of meteorological factors and HFMD incidence can be used for short-term prediction of HFMD incidence in Qingyuan City.
2019, Vol. 26 
